Sunday, April 25, 2010

Weekly 5th Wave Pattern

A weekly 5th wave pattern is noted on the SPY as drawn on the chart below. Does this mean the market has reached a top? Elliott Wave theory teaches that the market moves in 5 waves of 3 steps forward and 2 steps back and this is what we see here. While the market continues to show strength a reversal here could mean we could expect either A) an A-B-C correction pattern which is a sign of consolidation for further expansion and the start of a new wave count to the upside or B) a new wave count reversal to the downside. While these are only two of the possible ways the market could move they are the patterns that I will be looking for "IF" there is a corrective sell off to the downside. We live in a global economy and while the US economy shows signs of growth and expansion what happens in other parts of the world can affect us as well and we should expect this type of wave pattern to continue as it has in the past. However good Elliott Wave theory may be at describing predictive models of the market we still let the market make the decision as to the timing of reversal patterns. Market sentiment remains bullish. Click on the chart to enlarge.

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