Market Summary

The monthly chart of the S&P 500 below shows the rally off the March 2009 lows to the April 1010 highs and the pull back we have had since that time. And while we have 2 more days left in this month as it stands now we show having made a higher high and a higher low this month than last month. And while anything is possible it seems to me we have a good chance of finishing the month this way. September and October are seasonally the worst months of the year in the market. How it plays out this year we will just have to wait and see. Click on chart to enlarge.

Gold is the leader in performance on the YTD basis followed by the US dollar ETF UUP with the natural gas ETF UNG doing the worst. For the week the gas and oil ETFs were up the most and the natural gas ETF UNG was down a lot at -10.22%. Click on table to enlarge.

Market Summary

As can be seen from the weekly chart of the S&P500 below the 20 moving average(blue line) is at the point of crossing the 50 moving average(red line). This last happened at the beginning of 2008 and we know what kind of year that was. Currently we are in between the low and the high of July and which price level we reach first, the prior low or the prior high, will tell us a lot about the trend of the market. Click on chart to enlarge.

For the YTD period gold and the dollar are the only ETFs in positive green territory. For the week FXI and GLD did the best and USO did the worst. Click on table to enlarge.

Market Summary

The market has once again fallen below its long term moving average as seen on the monthly chart of the SPY below. The good news is that with the month of August we have made a higher high and a higher low as it now stands. The momentum of the last several days has been to the downside and it is possible that this is the beginning of a wave 3 count to the downside which would take us to below the 100 level. There are however several areas of support and I am not in the camp of those who believe in a double dip at this point. Next week will tell us more as to the future trend of the market and we will just have to wait and see. Click on chart to enlarge.

We have lost two members of the "Green Team" in the YTD column from last week and the more riskier asset classes, the small cap and nasdaq which usually lead the market, were down more than the Dow or S&P500 which is not a good sign. The US dollar also has changed its downward trend and begun to move up which puts downward pressure on the equity markets. Click on table to enlarge.

Mid-Week Review

Following the Fed announcement yesterday at the FOMC meeting that the economic recovery is not as robust as had been hoped and that the Fed would monetize the debt by buying treasury notes to keep interest rates low the futures market began to sell off over night resulting in a gap open lower this morning. This announcement comes on the heels of Friday's worst than expected jobs report. What can be seen from the chart below is island top formed by the gap open higher on August 2 noted by the blue oval and today's gap lower as noted by the pink oval. Island tops are a topping sign before the market moves lower. Currently the futures market are pointing to a lower open tomorrow. Also note the five wave count. How far down the market will go we will just have to wait and see. Click on chart to enlarge.

Market Summary

The monthly chart of the SPY below shows that the market is above its long term moving average and the next target is the June high of 113.20. And while the bears keep believing that the market should go down the momentum is to the upside. Friday's jobs report, which was worst than expected, was not able to keep the market down and when the market rises on bad new it is a good sign. Click on chart to enlarge.

For the YTD period we now have four funds in the green as the market moves higher. For the week the US dollar was down -1.64% and as the dollar goes down the stock market goes up. How the markets react to a rising dollar we will just have to wait and see. Click on table to enlarge.

Market Summary

The month of July prove to be the best month for the market in a long time and put an end to the downtrend that began with the high in June. And while the weekly chart of the SPY shows a series of higher highs and higher lows since the beginning of July the last week of July was more like a doji with the SPY opening the week at 110.60 and closing the week at 110.27. A doji is a sign of indecision and the market is between the 50 and 200 day moving averages and it will either breakout or breakdown. The daily chart shows a breakout of a falling wedge pattern which is bullish however which way it goes we will just have to wait and see. Click on chart to enlarge.

While price performance shows little change for the week which is typical of a doji pattern for the month the oil index was up over 12% and both the EEM and EFA were up 10%. Click on table to enlarge.