Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Elliott Wave Revisited

Elliott Wave patterns show up in different timeframes and are a fractal pattern based on a 5 wave count. The basic pattern is 3 steps forward and 2 steps back (or 3 step backwards and 2 steps forward in a downtrend as shown below) after which there is a reversal of trend or a 3 wave consolidation pattern known as an A-B-C correction.

This pattern is one you must look out for and many market analyst have gone to great lengths to identify this pattern. I have mentioned Elliott Wave many times before, see here, here, and here. It has been successfull in calling cyclical changes in the market. The 3 month daily chart below seems to me to have made a 5th wave low. We could now be in for a change of trend(a rally) or a consoldation pattern before heading to new lows. We will just have to wait and see. Click on chart to enlarge.
Addendum: Wave count correction
While leaving the chart above as an example of a wave count error, I would like to add that it was a mistake on my part for seeing a 4th wave and that in fact we are still in a 3rd wave down. I have noted this by drawing the red broken line. The 4th wave is usually very choppy and would last longer than I have shown here.

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