Saturday, May 31, 2008

Market Summary

The $USD index measures the performance of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies.The currencies are: Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), British Pound (GBP), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Swiss Franc (CHF) and Swedish Krona (SEK). This performance is calculated by a formula whose real-time result is represented in the chart below which is a 3 yr. Weekly chart. As a result of the falling value of the dollar commodity prices have gone up. However, by looking at the chart there is a divergence between the price of the dollar and the CCI indicator. A divergence is where price makes a lower lows and the indicator makes a higher lows. This is a sign that the bottom in the dollar may have occurred which would mean that a top in commodities prices, like gold and oil, has occurred. We can follow oil by the gas price at the pump. Crude oil accounts for 73% of the price of a gallon of gas. Click on chart to enlarge.
The table below list some of the markets I follow on a regular basis. As can be seen, gold and oil took the biggest hit this last week just as the dollar is showing some signs of bottoming. However, looking at the 4 Week performance oil and gold did the best. Over the last 3 months Nasdaq and oil have done the best and the small cap index came in 3rd place with gold is the only loser down 9%. For the last 12 months gold still has its glitter up 35% and oil came in 2nd up 31% with the remaining indices in the red.

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