Friday, April 11, 2008

S&P 500 – 1332

We have seen this number before. In the recent past it was a number that the market was coming up to but could not pass. It was resistance. Then on March 19 we broke through for the first time, then again on March 24. The last time was April 1 with a decided move up and now we have come back to this level again. My feeling is that this time it is support. That means we should see a bottom here and next week we take off to the upside. However, there is always some uncertainty about the future .

I am posting 3 charts here: a half day chart, a daily chart, and a weekly chart. I am leaving the trend lines on that were previously drawn.

Here we see the short term 20 days 4 hr chart still showing us a series of higher highs and higher lows – the classic definition of an uptrend.
A little longer perspective with a 3 months daily chart shows a resistance area between 1380 and 1395 with 3 failures to break up into this area. Also we see a large red candle on the right which seems to have broken the trend line to the downside.
Finally our 9 months Weekly chart shows how we came up to the downtrend line and reversed but are still within the recent uptrend line and have pulled back to approximately a 62% retracement of last week.
We remain within the confines of a triangular tug of war between the bulls and the bears. If we break below 1310 we are likely headed lower and if we break above 1380 we are likely going higher. What the future holds we will just have to wait and see.

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