Market Summary

The image below is the long term monthly chart of the SPY showing the Fibonacci Retracement from the high in October 2007 to the low of March 2009. There has been exceptional strength in this rally and price has blown past the 50% retracement and is headed to the 61.8% retracement level at 123.30 (or 1233 on the S&P 500). It pretty much looks like a V bottom so far and the 123.30 level is another 5% higher. Click on image to enlarge.

The composite image below of the SPY shows the long, intermediate, and short term trend are still in the green indicating bullish sentiment. Only the very short term trend as measured by the hourly trend in the 60 Min panel has a pink background showing a bearish sentiment in that time frame. Click on image to enlarge.

For the week the US Dollar as measured by the ETF UUP was up the most up 1.05% while the natural gas ETF UNG was down the most down -6.91%. For the Year-To-Date performance the Russell small cap index is up the most up 6.07% while the natural gas ETF is off the most down -34.21%. When the Russell small cap index leads the market higher that is a very bullish sign. Click on table to enlarge.

Market Summary

While there was a sell off Friday as indicated by the pink background on the image below the market has been extremely bullish making new 52 week highs on half of the Dow 30 recently. And now that we have healthcare reform almost signed into law we will have to wait and see how the market responds to that. Click on image to enlarge.

For the week the US dollar as reflected in the UUP was up the most up 1.24% followed by the Dow up 1.10%. The rest of the ETFs were changed by less than 1% for the week indicating a weekly doji or spinning top formation. Click on table to enlarge.

Market Summary

Market sentiment is still very bullish as the market appears ready to go to new highs at the one year mark of the start of this bullish move. To my eye the Elliott wave count is a weekly wave 5 and a daily wave 3 with the possibility of a wave 4 correction. In other words, we could be very close to a top in the markets yet the market keeps moving higher. Should the market sell off here it would create a double top which would be a bearish sign but no evidence of that yet. A correction will come and we will be on the look out for it. Until then market sentiment remains green. Click on image to enlarge.

For the week the Nasdaq Composite Index was the leader up 1.78% followed by the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index up 1.59%. When these two lead it is a very bullish sign. On the down side were commodities and the US Dollar in the red. For the YTD performance the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index is up the most at 5.70% and the EEM (which was up the most last year) is down the most down - 3.44%. Click on table to enlarge.

Market Summary

As can be seen in the composite image below of the ETF SPY all of the time frames have a green background indicating bullish sentiment. The market sentiment clearly is a reflection of the current belief of the state of the economy. The state of the economy is reflected in consumer confidence and the current unemployment. Friday's release of bullish unemployment numbers helped move the markets higher. Bullish breakouts higher can be seen in the Financial sector XLF, Home Builders XHB, and Broker Dealers index $XBD all reflecting bullish sentiment. The Retail ETF XRT and the Retail Holders index RTH both show similar bullish patterns indicating strong consumer confidence. Click on image to enlarge.

For the week the Russel 2000 small cap index did the best up about 6% followed by the emerging market ETF EEM up a little over 5%. When the riskier indexes of the market do well that is a bullish indicator. On the downside the UNG did the worst followed by the UUP which was only slightly down but helped propel the markets higher. Note the YTD column and the indexes in the green. Click on table to enlarge.